Notice how Twitter has changed our perception of what “breaking” means? I’m seeing a similar effect in reporting of mobile trends and possibilities. Some prople and organizations are reporting data that is either outdated (despite being as recent as six months ago!) or distorted by recency bias.
Recency bias causes us to over-weight data seen more recently, even if it’s disproportionate to the actual data in the entire series. It’s particularly dangerous when business conditions are rapidly changing, making recent history less relevant and potentially misleading.
For many marketers, mobile has been in the background, given either little thought or a lazy, token effort. Now, hearing the buzz building and trying to catch up, they scramble for recent data.
But today’s data are misleading. Here are a few of dangerous conclusions you might make from recent or current data:
- Nokia is the dominant mobile hardware provider worldwide. This is statistically true. However, Nokia is a badly limping player, taking lumps for poor recent “breakthrough” smartphones. Its operating system, Symbian, is badly out of date. The latest Nokia investor conference call would have been risible had it not been downright sad. No one is really paying much attention to Nokia as a market leader.
- All the action is in smartphones. All the buzz has been in smartphones for the past year. But the truth is, fewer than 20% of Americans own a smartphone. The smartphone landscape is so balkanized you can’t possibly pick just one for your smartphone “bet.” Luxury brands like Ralph Lauren are very well-served by good iPhone apps. But a smartphone is as far from a mass platform as arugula is from a Big Mac. I love my iPhone (which took me back after my my extramarital fling with that Droid guy last weekend), but for mass marketers, smartphones are a wrong (single) choice.
- We already have all our content on-line — we’ll just link mobile visitors to our website! This is one of the worst things you can do in trying to shortcut mobile marketing. It’s so bad, it’s worse than doing nothing. A Sept 17, 2009 Yankee Group study revealed “most mobile sites fail to deliver optimal experiences, earning an average score of 52 on a scale of 1 - 100.” A simple, inexpensive, mobile-friendly web presence earns you at least a “Gentleman’s C.”
- OK, you’ve convinced me that things are changing too fast — I’ll wait for this landscape to shake out. Only if you’re willing to cede the big next marketing platform to your competition. Once they’re entrenched in your customers’ mobile devices, you’re going to have to work that much harder to displace them.
- I don’t have the money to do anything effective in mobile Cost effective mobile impact costs much less than you think. And you have the money lurking under the sofa cushions of your worst performing channels. Triage those budgets now to prepare for 2010.
This is a Wayne Gretzky moment: skate to where that puck’s gonna be. In a dramatically changing environment, focusing on today’s mobile landscape won’t help you succeed.
